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12/27/2006 - New York, NY (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - St. Louis Rams running back Steven Jackson, Green Bay Packers defensive end Aaron Kampman and Chicago kicker Robbie Gould have been selected as the NFC's top players for Week 16 of the season.
Jackson earned the offensive award after racking up 252 yards from scrimmage with a pair of touchdowns in the Rams' 37-31 overtime win over Washington. He had 33 carries for 150 yards and caught six passes for 102 yards.
The Pro Bowl back's 64-yard touchdown reception pulled St. Louis within 28-21 in the third quarter and he scored the winning touchdown in overtime with a 21-yard run to help keep the Rams' playoff hopes alive. It was also his first career Player of the Week honor.
Kampman notched his second career defensive award -- and second of the season -- in Green Bay's 9-7 victory over Minnesota. He had a team-best seven tackles and tied his career high with three sacks to help the Packer defense hold the Vikings to just 104 total net yards as Green Bay kept its playoff hopes alive.
Gould drilled four field goals in Chicago's 26-21 win over Detroit to capture the special teams award for the second time. Three of his kicks came in the fourth quarter as the Bears rallied from a 21-17 deficit.
Other nominees for the offensive award included New Orleans running backs Reggie Bush and Deuce McAllister. Bush had a career-high 126 rushing yards with a touchdown and caught two passes for 23 yards in a 30-7 rout of the New York Giants, while McAllister ran for 108 yards with a score.
A pair of Eagles were also considered, as quarterback Jeff Garcia threw for 238 yards with one touchdown and running back Brian Westbrook carried 26 times for 122 yards in a 23-7 Christmas Day win over Dallas.
Tampa Bay linebacker Derrick Brooks was among those nominated for defensive honors after notching six tackles and a 21-yard interception return for a touchdown in a 22-7 win over Cleveland. Two other Bucs were considered, as safety Jermaine Phillips had seven tackles with a pair of interceptions and defensive tackle Greg Spires notched five tackles with two sacks.
Special teams consideration went to Packers kicker Dave Rayner, who accounted for all of Green Bay's nine points with three field goals, including the game- winner from 44 yards away with 1:34 remaining.
<< Thornton leads West All-Star balloting
New York, NY (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - San Jose Sharks forward Joe Thornton leads all
Western Conference players in fan balloting for the NHL All-Star Game.
Thornton has received 614,753 votes and has a lead of more than 70,000 votes
on Anaheim d
<< Grizzlies are locked in the cellar
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Memphis Grizzlies three-year playoff run is in
serious jeopardy. They are a league-worst 6-23 and are six games behind the
fourth place New Orleans/Oklahoma City Hornets in the Northwest Division.
The Griz
<< Wolves' numbers keep coming up
Springfield, MA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Numerologists would have a field day with
the 2006-07 Chicago Wolves, who continue to put up offensive numbers rarely
seen during the American Hockey Leagues 71-year history.
Chicago wrote another headline
<< Redskins place Springs on IR
Ashburn, VA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Washington Redskins have placed cornerback
Shawn Springs on injured reserve because of a fractured shoulder blade.
Springs, who suffered through an injury-filled 2006, was hurt in the first
quarter of
Braham set to call it quits >>
Cincinnati, OH (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Cincinnati Bengals center Rich Braham is
apparently ready to call it a career.
Bengals head coach Marvin Lewis made the announcement at his Wednesday news
conference.
Braham suffered a knee injur
Buffalo extends Lindell >>
Orchard Park, NY (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Buffalo placekicker Rian Lindell signed a
contract extension that will keep him with the Bills though the 2011 season.
Since joining the Bills before the 2003 campaign, Lindell has connected on 83
percen
Vikings place Smoot on IR following car accident >>
Minneapolis, MN (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Minnesota Vikings cornerback Fred Smoot
was placed on injured reserve Wednesday, five days after being involved in a
single-car accident in his home state of Mississippi.
Vikings head coach Brad Chi
Eagles' Sheppard and Lewis questionable for Falcons game >>
Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Pro Bowl cornerback Lito Sheppard and
strong safety Michael Lewis are both listed as questionable for Philadelphia's
game against Atlanta this Sunday.
Sheppard, who recorded three tackles and a ke
There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
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