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03/08/2010 - New York, NY (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Danilo Gallinari made four three-pointers and finished with a game-high 27 points, as the New York Knicks escaped with a 99-98 win over the Atlanta Hawks at Madison Square Garden.
David Lee contributed a double-double with 19 points and 13 rebounds, while Al Harrington went for 14 points off the bench for the Knicks, who were able to recover from a 113-93 loss to New Jersey on Saturday.
New York, which had lost four of its last five coming into the contest, made 10-of-15 three-pointers after setting an NBA record by going 0-for-18 from three-point range in the setback to the Nets.
Josh Smith had a team-best 25 points to go along with 10 rebounds and six assists, while Joe Johnson ended with 22 points for Atlanta, which dropped its second straight after a four-game winning streak. Al Horford, who was unable to get off the would-be game-winning shot as time expired, turned in a solid performance with 18 points and 12 rebounds.
New York led by six after three quarters and its advantage ballooned to double-digits, 87-76, with 8:44 remaining thanks in part to back-to-back makes by Eddie House.
With the Knicks ahead by 10 a short time later, the Hawks went on an 11-2 run to make it a 97-96 game with 2:53 left. Johnson made 1-of-2 from the free- throw line to end the rally and get Atlanta within one.
Each team went cold over the next two minutes before Harrington's jumper with 50.5 seconds to play put New York up by three, 99-96. Smith's layup drew Atlanta within a point with 27.5 ticks on the clock before Toney Douglas' turnover with 7.9 seconds remaining gave the Hawks a last chance.
Smith's layup was blocked by Wilson Chandler from in close with 1.7 seconds to go, but Horford's short follow-up as the buzzer sounded was initially ruled as good. However, the basket was waved off after replays clearly showed the ball had not left Horford's hands before time expired, and the Knicks held on.
After a 27-27 opening quarter, things stayed close in the second with neither team able to pull away. Horford's short turnaround jumper in the last minute of the half gave the Hawks a 46-44 edge heading into the break.
In the third, Sergio Rodriguez hit three straight Knicks shots to power an 8-2 run to start the period and give New York a 52-48 lead. Harrington's trey in the final minute put the hosts up 76-70 after three.
Game Notes
The Knicks went 3-1 against Atlanta this season and have won 16 of the last 20 meetings between the teams at the Garden...New York shot 50.6 percent, while the Hawks made 42.5 percent of their shots, but only 3-of-17 from three-point range...Jamal Crawford ended with 16 points and six rebounds for Atlanta.
<< Marion leads Mavs to 12th straight victory
Minneapolis, MN (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Shawn Marion posted 29 points to go with 14
rebounds, pacing the Mavericks to their 12th straight victory in a 125-112
decision over the lowly Timberwolves.
Dirk Nowitzki and Caron Butler added 24 a
<< Siena captures third straight MAA title
Albany, NY (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Edwin Ubiles recorded a game-high 27 points
along with seven rebounds to help the Sienna Saints past the Fairfield Stags
in overtime, 72-65, to win the Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference Tournament
Champio
<< Turco, Stars snap Capitals' home streak in SO
Washington, DC (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Loui Eriksson scored in the fifth round of
the shootout and Marty Turco stopped a career-high 49 shots as Dallas rallied
in the third and ended Washington's 13-game home-winning streak with a 4-3 win
at Veri
<< Raiders release injury-prone Walker; Ellis let go as well
Alameda, CA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Oakland Raiders released wide receiver
Javon Walker on Monday, as well as veteran defensive end Greg Ellis.
Walker inked a six-year, $55-million contract with Oakland prior to the 2008
campaign but
Siena captures third straight MAAC title >>
Albany, NY (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Edwin Ubiles recorded a game-high 27 points
along with seven rebounds to help the Siena Saints past the Fairfield Stags
in overtime, 72-65, to win the Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference Tournament
Champio
St. Mary's upsets No. 18 Gonzaga for WCC title >>
Las Vegas, NV (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Mickey McConnell and Ben Allen each hit four
three-pointers to key the Gaels' terrific shooting effort, as St. Mary's
downed No. 18 Gonzaga, 81-62, to capture the West Coast Conference Tournament
title.
West Virginia downs Rutgers, moves on to Big East final >>
Hartford, CT (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Sarah Miles scored 18 points to pace No. 9
West Virginia over Rutgers, 56-49, in the semifinals of the Big East
Conference Tournament.
Asya Bussie added 10 points for the second-seeded Mounta
Browns acquire rights to QB Wallace >>
Berea, OH (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Cleveland Browns acquired the rights to
quarterback Seneca Wallace on Monday, sending an undisclosed 2011 draft pick
to the Seattle Seahawks in exchange.
The trade is contingent on Wallace passing a p
MySportsbook.com Releases World Series Championship Lines
New York Yankees and Chicago White Sox early favorites to win 2008 World Series
The Major League Baseball season starts this weekend and MySportsbook.com, a leading online sportsbook for over 8 years, is the first to offer baseball sports betting lines on who will win the 2007 World Series.
"The World Series is the biggest baseball event in the sports betting world and MySportsbook.com is excited that we are first to market with betting lines on every team," says Tim Dalton, Marketing Director, MySportsbook.com. "We are getting things ready for a great baseball season and our members are looking forward to our Player Payback Bonuses, as well as Dime Lines, all season long."
Going in to this weekend, MySportsbook.com's favorites to win the World Series are the New York Yankees at 7-2 and last year’s winners the Chicago White Sox at 9-2.
"These betting lines are ripe for the picking," Dalton added, "baseball fans know that the season is long and many factors, including players staying healthy, will affect these Future odds as the baseball season progresses. Betting on your favorite team in the beginning of the season could prove quite lucrative. We are seeing examples of this right now in the NCAA College Basketball Tournament with a lucky few that placed pre-season bets on George Mason to win it all. Anything can happen."
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MySportsbook.com is the foremost online sportsbook offering Internet wagering to its worldwide customers. Fully licensed and regulated in St. John’s, Antigua since 1997, MySportsbook.com offers a complete range of online casino games, sports betting lines, poker tournaments and horse racing offtrack betting daily through its portfolio of companies and managed services. With over 7 years of experience, MySportsbook.com has become one of the most respected companies in the gaming industry by providing unparalleled 24/7 customer support and timely payouts. MySportsbook.com is part of the SportingBet PLC group of companies that is publicly-traded on the London Stock Exchange ( LSE ) under the symbol SBT.L. MySportsbook.com provides a secure environment for sports and casino wagering and has been featured in numerous media outlets, including MAXIM Magazine, Cigar Aficionado, and CNN’s Paula Zahn Now among others.
There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
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