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03/11/2010 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Rookie forwards usually take at least a season to develop into consistent performers at the NHL level.
Even in the case of No. 1 overall picks, who are expected to be stars, it usually takes a year of adjustment to the grind of the NHL's 82-game schedule before they become "difference-makers".
The past three No. 1 overall picks have all experienced the expected highs and lows during their rookie campaigns. While Chicago Blackhawks' dangler Patrick Kane (2007) and Tampa Bay Lightning pivot Steven Stamkos (2008) are currently thriving, 2009 No. 1 overall pick John Tavares of the New York Islanders is going through a rough patch.
The 6-foot-0, 195-pound center started the 2009-10 season on a high note, scoring 15 goals in his first 31 games, but since late December, his scoring touch has deserted him. The talented rookie has scored just three goals in his last 35 games ahead of the Islanders matchup with the Blues on Thursday night, with a goal in the Islanders' most recent game snapping a 17-game scoreless streak.
"I knew there would be some bumps in the road," Tavares told The Sportsbook Betting Lines earlier this week. "That is part of the process. Obviously every game I would like to do good things out there and be able to produce."
But what the 19-year-old rookie has been able to contribute during his first professional season, despite the extended scoring slump, should be enough to make the Islanders and their fans beam.
"He has continued to work out of his scoring slump," Islanders coach Scott Gordon said. "That's an important part of it. His game hasn't tailed off in other areas from his frustration in not being able to score."
Tavares has been able to work on keeping his motor running in the offensive zone, not giving up on plays while also covering the ice better, which is a big part of the center-ice position at the NHL level. While he isn't putting the puck in the net consistently, he is still at least creating chances for himself and his linemates.
"The biggest take-away is that he is allowing himself the opportunity to get better in smaller areas while he is trying to find his scoring touch," Gordon said.
"Obviously during this stretch I'm on, where things haven't really gone my way, I have learned a lot, tried a lot of different things and worked on a lot of different parts of my game, which is going to help me in the long run," Tavares said. "I know what I have been able to do my whole life and this will only help me get better as I go along. I think I have proven myself as well, that I belong here and I can contribute consistently and produce consistently. It's my first year, I'm learning a lot and it will really help me for my future."
Tavares need look no further than Stamkos for inspiration. As a rookie last season, Stamkos started off shaky before finally finding his groove toward the end of the season. The early part of the season, while rough on the youngster, helped him develop his game.
The result? Stamkos is among the NHL leaders with 41 goals scored through March 11 in this, his second season in the NHL.
"It's great seeing a guy like Steven, who I know personally, doing well after having a tough year last year," Tavares said. "He played really well the second half of the season. For me it's positive to see guys who have been in my position and succeeded."
That positive attitude not only bodes well for Tavares' future, but the Islanders, who have lacked legitimate star power for a number of years. Tavares and second-year winger Kyle Okposo give the Islanders a young duo up front who they can build around. Both players seem to have the maturity, pedigree and desire to be the go-to-guys in the near future.
"I've dealt with pressure for a long time," Tavares said. "For me it's not really new. I think it's a different type at a different level. Kyle has proven himself as a great player and I'm trying to do doing the same thing. We like that, we like being in the situation where we are relied on in situations. We want to come up with the big plays at the big times and we are excited about our future here as Islanders."
The Islanders are currently last in the Atlantic Division and second-to-last in the Eastern Conference, but with a couple horses in the stable, there is at least a glimmer of hope for the downtrodden franchise.
"You just take it one day at a time," Tavares said. "I think we are trying to improve in a lot of areas."
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There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
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