2010 Pac-10 Conference Tournament Preview

NCAA Basketball Betting Lines

03/09/2010 - Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Nine team will converge on the Staples Center in Los Angeles to compete for the Pac-10 Conference Tournament championship beginning on Wednesday, March 10th.

The only member of the league that isn't competing for an automatic berth to the NCAA Tournament is USC, which is ineligible for this event because of self-imposed sanctions. Last season, the Trojans won the Pac-10 Tournament title, so it is certainly disappointing for fans of that program that USC won't have a chance defend the title. California enters as the top seed, but in a conference with greater parity than almost any other in the nation, it is hard to consider the Golden Bears a runaway favorite. They figure to be pushed by second-seeded Arizona State and third-seeded Washington. Fourth-seeded Arizona and fifth-seeded UCLA are both young teams, but there is enough talent in place to score an upset. Sixth-seeded Oregon State is one of four teams still in search of a Pac-10 Tournament title, and the team is slowly getting better. Seventh-seeded Stanford was a disappointment over the last couple of months, and the Cardinal need to get on track in a hurry. As for eighth-seeded Oregon and ninth-seeded Washington State, neither are considered a legitimate threat to capture the crown.

The Oregon Ducks and Washington State Cougars will meet on Wednesday in the tournament's only opening-round affair, and the winner will earn the right to fact top-seeded California in the quarterfinals. WSU has never won this tournament and owns an unimpressive 5-10 record all-time in the event. The Ducks have two Pac-10 tourney titles to their credit, the most recent of which was earned in 2007. The player to watch for Washington State is sophomore Klay Thompson, as he ranks third in the conference in scoring with 19.6 ppg. Reggie Moore adds 12.6 ppg, and he is just a freshman. Tajuan Porter is the leading scorer for Oregon, but it is highly unlikely that his 11.9 ppg and erratic shooting will scare the Cougars. Malcolm Armstead leads the Ducks and ranks third in the league with 4.43 apg. On Saturday, March 6th, Oregon beat Washington State by a 74-66 final to close out the regular season.

The first of four quarterfinal-round matchups pits the fourth-seeded Arizona Wildcats against the fifth-seeded UCLA Bruins, and these two teams rank first and second, respectively, in regard to Pac-10 Tournament championships. Arizona has captured the crown four times, most recently in 2002, and the club is 17-8 all-time in this event. As for UCLA, it has three titles to its credit, including two in the last four years. Arizona is last in the conference in scoring defense (71.9 ppg), but the club is third in scoring offense (72.0 ppg). Freshman Derrick Williams leads the Wildcats with 15.7 ppg and 7.0 rpg, while Nic Wise, a senior, provides 14.4 ppg and 3.4 apg. UCLA is also led by a freshman, as Michael Roll is scoring 13.5 ppg on the strength of his 42 percent shooting from three-point range. The Bruins rank last in the 10-team league in scoring margin, last in free-throw percentage and last in three-point percentage defense, so the fact that they have been able to overcome the shortcomings and win enough games to earn a five seed is impressive. Arizona won both meetings with UCLA during the regular season.

As mentioned, top-seeded California will battle either Washington State or Oregon in the quarterfinals, and the Golden Bears hope that they can claim their first Pac-10 Tournament championship. Cal is the top free-throw shooting team in the league and leads the conference in field goal percentage as well. The Golden Bears are scoring 77.4 ppg while allowing 67.7 ppg to foes, and they own the second-best scoring margin in the Pac-10. There is a wealth of talent in the starting lineup, and four Cal players rank in the top-20 in the league in scoring. Jerome Randle is fourth with 18.7 ppg, and fellow guard Patrick Christopher is seventh with 16.0 ppg. Theo Robertson brings 13.8 ppg to the mix, and Jamal Boykin contributes 11.7 ppg and 6.7 rpg. All four players are seniors, providing Cal with plenty of experience.

The third-seeded Washington Huskies and sixth-seeded Oregon State Beavers will square off on Thursday, and while OSU has never won this tournament, the Huskies finished on top in 2005 and have split their 20 games in this event. Washington possesses two of the Pac-10's top five scorers, as Quincy Pondexter sits second with 20.2 ppg and Isaiah Thomas checks in with 17.2 ppg, good for fifth place. Pondexter is third in the league with 7.8 rpg, and the fact that he is shooting 54.3 percent from the floor despite constant attention from defenders is impressive. The Huskies lead the league in scoring offense (80.5 ppg) and scoring margin (+10.0 ppg), and they are also tops in rebounding margin (+4.6 rpg). As for Oregon State, it ranks ninth in the league in scoring offense (60.0 ppg) and ninth in scoring margin (-1.2 ppg). The Beavers shoot just 28.5 percent from three-point range, but the fact that they lead the Pac-10 in steals has certainly helped their cause. Calvin Haynes leads OSU with 12.7 ppg. Washington beat Oregon State by 12 points in the regular-season finale, and by six points earlier in the campaign.

The final quarterfinal pairing features the second-seeded Arizona State Sun Devils and the seventh-seeded Stanford Cardinal. Stanford's lone title was earned in 2004, and the team is 11-11 in this tournament. As for the Sun Devils, they own a 5-11 mark in this event and have never earned the league's automatic bid to the NCAA Tournament. ASU is paced by Ty Abbott (12.0 ppg) and Rihards Kuksiks (11.7 ppg), and Eric Boateng, who leads the conference in field goal percentage (.653), is sixth in rebounding (7.0 rpg). The Sun Devils are second in the league in scoring defense (58.1 ppg) and are the best three- point shooting team (.371). Stanford always has a chance to win regardless of the opposition because of the presence of Landry Fields, the top scorer in the conference at 22.2 ppg. Fields is also second in rebounding with 8.7 rpg, and with Jeremy Green (16.9 ppg) in the fold, the Cardinal may possess the top duo in the Pac-10. Unfortunately, Stanford ranks last in the league in field goal percentage defense. The Sun Devils beat the Cardinal in both head-to-head meetings during the regular season.

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Numerous College Basketball teams take final big step to March Madness betting

So, what turned on the lock spigot? Well, after what felt like weeks of teams treading water and slipping back into the bubble muck, a bunch of them finally decided to say "to heck with parity" and won games that should put them into the Big Dance.

Disagree with some of these? Then here's the challenge. Take all of the "should be ins" and make a legit case that each should be ahead of the team that's a lock. Then find 10 more teams that also should be placed in the bracket ahead of that lock team. Not so easy, is it?

If you want more evidence that these locks should be good to go, check out what our research department dug up. Since the NCAA Tournament went to 64 teams in 1985, only six teams from a "big six" conference have had a record of 10-6 or better in conference play and not been selected: Colorado (2004) and Nebraska (1999) from the Big 12, Boston College and Seton Hall (both 2003) from the Big East, Indiana (2005) from the Big Ten and UCLA, which somehow went 12-6 in the Pac-10 in 1988 and still missed out. (Note: Five teams went 11-7 and didn't get in, the latest being last season's Stanford team, which had a brutal nonconference run.)

Yes, 10 conference wins doesn't always mean what it used to because of unbalanced schedules, but this season, it should be plenty good in all but the extreme cases (see: Iowa).

In a way, this is a welcome development, because this is a bubble watch, not a lock watch. We can finally be done with teams like Maryland and Virginia Tech and start really bearing down on at-large battles such as Syracuse-West Virginia and Appalachian State-Georgia Tech.

Interestingly, all the shifting of teams into lock status appears to be more administrative than impactful. The number of remaining available at-larges didn't change one iota. The only difference is that teams on the bubble now have a clearer idea of which team(s) they are competing with for those precious bids.

The Bubble Breakdown
CONFERENCE LOCKS SHOULD BE INS AT-LARGES TAKEN
(assuming no auto bid outlier)
ACC Betting Odds 6 0 5
Big East Betting Odds 5 0 4
Big Ten Betting Odds 2 2 3
Big 12 Betting Odds 3 0 2
Pac-10 Betting Odds 5 1 5
SEC Betting Odds 4 0 3
MVC Betting Odds 1 1 1
MWC Betting Odds 2 1 2
TOTAL 28 5 25

As always, I've tried to be as inclusive as possible while only including teams that would have a reasonable chance of at least being discussed if this were Selection Sunday. If your team's not on here, there's probably a good reason (or three) -- start with the RPI and SOS numbers and work your way down.

(Please remember, per selection committee criteria, that records displayed are Division I only. Next update: Feb. 28)

If you have a legitimate grievance, or just like talking bubble, send an e-mail. Polite ones with fact-based arguments have a much better chance of receiving a response. I apologize in advance if I can't get back to all of you.

Atlantic Coast Conference

Work left to do: Clemson, Florida State, Georgia Tech

The ACC moves to six locks as BC, Va Tech and Virginia all got their 10th ACC wins, which should be more than enough this season, and Maryland rallied past North Carolina to get the final piece the Terps needed. After that? It could end there unless FSU, Ga Tech or Clemson picks things up in a hurry.

 

Work left to do:

Clemson [19-9 (5-9), RPI: 41, SOS: 42] The Tigers are closer to locking up the collapse of the year award (in a good battle with OK State) than they are to grabbing an at-large. Clemson's been very competitive, but there's no really positive way you can spin nine losses in 11 games. They now cannot get to .500 in ACC play and still must head to Virginia Tech in the season finale (after hosting Miami). Unless the Tigers win both and/or do some serious work in the ACC tourney, they very well could be left out. There are no great nonconference wins, but ODU, App State, Miss. State, South Carolina and Georgia are all respectable W's.

Florida State [18-11 (6-9), RPI: 48, SOS: 14] The Noles got thrashed at Maryland to run their losing streak to five, but then pounded NC State at home to set the table for what likely is an elimination game at Miami. You can at least make a case for the Seminoles at 7-9 in ACC play (and some work in the ACC tourney), but 6-10 is not going to cut it. Wins at Duke and over Florida will resonate, but the computer numbers remain questionable. Beyond Florida, FSU thrashed bubble buddy Providence, but there's not a ton beyond those two games that will help. They didn't show well in big-time opportunities against Pitt and Wisconsin (before the Florida win).

Georgia Tech [18-10 (6-8), RPI: 51, SOS: 46] The Jackets beat Wake on Wednesday but couldn't get it done at UVa on Saturday, which could be a crucial loss with UNC and BC (both at home) remaining and 8-8 almost a certain need for at-large consideration. A nonconference win over Memphis helps, but the RPI and SOS are not at-large quality right now; if you combine those with a sub-.500 ACC mark, that could spell NIT for GT.

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